I believe the world is changing in big ways that haven’t happened before in our lifetimes but have many times in history, so I knew I needed to study past changes to understand what is happening now and help me to anticipate what is likely to happen.
I shared what I learned in my book, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, and my hope is that this animation gives people an easy way to understand the key ideas from the book in a simple and entertaining way. In the first 18 minutes, you’ll get the gist of what drives the “Big Cycle” of rise and decline of nations through time and where we now are in that cycle. If you give me 20 minutes more to watch the whole thing, and I will show you how the big cycle worked across the last 500 years of history—and what the current world leading power, the United States, needs to do to remain strong.
I hope you find it valuable and look forward to hearing your thoughts.
You can buy the book on Amazon (https://www.amazon.com/Changing-World-Order-Nations-Succeed/dp/1982160276/?maas=maas_adg_7DC54053C269F971F2D2F3288B35474D_afap_abs&ref_=aa_maas&tag=maas) or in bookstores nationwide.
1:33 – How I Learned to Anticipate the Future by Studying the Past
8:00 – Changing Orders
11:38 – The Big Cycle
18:26 – 500 Years of Big Cycles
18:45 – The Rise
26:16 – The Top
32:01- The Decline
39:39 – The Future
For more videos on The Changing World Order, view this playlist: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLykIL_1_MFWkYsR0EyZHU_3zlUK8ZNoYH
For more from Ray:
Principles | #1 New York Times Bestseller: https://amzn.to/2JMewHb
Principles for Success, distills Principles into an easy-to-read and entertaining format for readers of all ages: https://amzn.to/34lgnNJ
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With more guns than US population what do you think we'll have: a peaceful transition?? NO! Greedy capitalists caused our disbalance and tectonic shifts when they moved all jobs and production of goods to China and other cheaper labor forces since the 1980's or so.
If only this had been required curriculum for the prime Minister of Canada. Maybe trudeau wouldn't be destroying us the way he is.
One thing is 100% certain, US will never accept to earn more then they spend, heck they would not even accept earning/spending parity.
Spending money they don't have is the #1 US pastime at the country level and at the personal level.
This was gold. Thank you
I can see collapsing of US empire and raising of chaina
I can't stop thinking about what's happening in Ukraine as I watch this video, all from Russia moving closer to China and the BRICS nations to what the US is doing to help Ukraine "win" this war which I highly doubt it will, it's pushing itself more and more into greater debt. Amazing video to say the least.
I wonder if we see the same pattern outside the western "world."
We need to divest from inner culture wars, both the left and the right. We need to stop ourselves every time we have to urge to parrot ideologies that are being pumped out of the media. We must unite and break the cycle that's clearly happening. We also need to save more than we earn and invest in the Stockmarket!
🔴The rich stay rich by investing like the rich and spending like the poor, while the poor remains poor by spending like the rich yet not investing*
Now, how does cryptocurrency fit into this picture? Can it become the next reserve currency?
Millions thanks for making this informative video. Can’t wait to share this video with my child right now. Again, thanks Ray!
Why this is not being taught in school is criminal i love your content
World war 3
2:18 You really should mention here that the US government deficit spending was mostly because of the wars in Korea and Vietnam, not social programs. Economist Michael Hudson, who was a balance of payments expert at Chase at the time, has shown that the US current account deficit was almost entirely because of war spending.
8:36 #2 was caused by #1: the massive inequality was fueled by central bank money printing. The Fed's quantitative easing did not benefit average working people; wages stagnated and aggregate demand did not increase. That is why consumer price inflation was not a problem. Instead, QE fueled asset price inflation. That "printed" money went into the pockets of wealthy financial speculators, who got richer and richer off of one of the biggest asset bubbles in history.
22:36 This is extremely misleading. You took those quotes out of context. China did not adopt capitalism; it developed a system of market socialism, in which the state oversees markets, as a tool to grow the economy. It's not the same as capitalism. Deng Xiaoping (you spelled his name wrong) explained his "to get rich is glorious" quote with the following:
Deng: "According to Marxism, communist society is based on material abundance. Only when there is material abundance can the principle of a communist society – that is, 'from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs' be applied. Socialism is the first stage of communism. Of course, it covers a very long historical period.
"The main task in the socialist stage is to develop the productive forces, keep increasing the material wealth of society, steadily improve the life of the people and create material conditions for the advent of a communist society. There can be no communism with pauperism, or socialism with pauperism.
"So to get rich is no sin. However, what we mean by getting rich is different from what you mean. Wealth in a socialist society belongs to the people. To get rich in a socialist society means prosperity for the entire people. The principles of socialism are: first, development of production and second, common prosperity. We permit some people and some regions to become prosperous first, for the purpose of achieving common prosperity faster. That is why our policy will not lead to polarization, to a situation where the rich get richer while the poor get poorer."
This is why we have nfts
i learned more in this video than in kindy..btw i 7 years old
Ray Dalio for president! PLEASE 😢
While pondering the last part of Ray's very lucid and well thought out presentation, regarding us not overspending and treating each other well, it definitely would help to extend the length of time the US has left as the dominant power and can even determine the position we hold, after any such change to our place at the top. When it comes to relations with our allies, the same can be said, since our treatment of one another can determine the strength of our bonds and our willingness to sacrifice for one another. For example, is it better to defer your crown to an ally, than to an enemy, if you can't maintain your rule? Or it is better to be poor with a friend ruling you, than an enemy ruling you? This latter idea works well for resolving internal conflict within nations also. If we never forget that we are our neighbors, our countrymen, whose ancestors bled and died together to gain our opportunity at freedom and prosperity, it should mean something to us and mean more than our perceived personal grievances with one another. If we value ourselves as individuals above our nations, then we are no longer worthy of the benefits of those nations.
So, in determining what the benefits of the nation are for each of us personally, I think we need to not only look at our benefiting in how we protect one another, simply by cooperative living in providing goods, services, jobs and employment to one another, but what we stand to lose as individuals in the various scenarios that can arise in attempted self-preservation, especially if we begin to value ourselves above everyone else in our nation. For example, poor people fighting to gain what they perceive as owed to them due to a wealth gap, could lose everything, through lost productivity and destroyed infrastructure. Does this really do anything other than reduce the wealthy to their level, if they win? We all will be digging for worms to eat at that point, if they do win. Wealthy people can flee to China, change their dollars to Yuan and live in a foreign land, where not even their money can truly buy them respect, trust, welcome, and a place that feels like home. They certainly will never regain the love of the countrymen they've greedily abandoned, and money won't buy them love or peace in a foreign land either.
I think the key to our future success will require nationalism. This doesn't have to be radical, in such a way that we suddenly hate the world and turn our backs on everyone. However, there is only so much we can do, once we have overextended ourselves. We can try to resolve every foreign dispute that comes, especially as we see how it stands to benefit us financially. For example, not wanting China to suddenly control approximately 92% of the world's microchip supply, by invading Taiwan is understandable, since it would throw a wrench into the works of everything from computers to phones, to credit and debit cards. While I am not suggesting never defending allies, I am advocating making sure we can take care of our own needs and picking our allies based on honor and principle, as opposed to who benefits us financially and then abandoning them when it is no longer economically feasible. This latter practice will make you hated and feel used by the world, if all you care about is money and you selling out everyone for your survival. This doesn't just apply to nations, but individual wealthy people also. It is possible for individuals, businesses and governments to sell out their countrymen, their workers, or their allies respectively.
One of the ways I have thought of to help prevent a widening wealth gap and to increase education and the feeling of having something to lose for everyone, which in theory increases our bonds and responsibility to one another is that we need to encourage more people to buy stocks in companies or invest in government bonds whether through employers or specially created programs. Investing is the single biggest factor in determining who has money and who doesn't in my estimation, in the long term. Some poor people feel entitled to a handout from those who took risks, made sacrifices and invested. However, no one is entitled to take the fruits of someone else's labors, and this also includes that of those who were smart enough to put their money to work for them, and thus other people to work for them in doing so.
If we did this collectively and as a societal practice, people will all actually own a piece of the pie that is more tangible, even if they feel it is small, or perhaps undeservedly small, but they can watch it grow. We may actually begin to feel like this United States belongs to US finally and literally it would if we all own some portion of the business and fund the government. Even if I never become a rich man, my thoughts are on my children's futures. It may help them have a leg up at survival and a better-quality life. Thinking like this and not just about ourselves make it easier to justify the idea and to get started. Suddenly in doing so, you care more about being productive at work and less wasteful as a person if you see it stands to benefit you if everyone has a better attitude and is more caring. If we live in a society where no one cares due to feeling owed, or that working for a living is a waste of time since it doesn't provide them a living, or we become entitled and lazy, it is the ruination of us all. This is exactly what happens when the wealth gap becomes too great. People will refuse to work, simply to maintain the privilege of working, since it is no longer truly a privilege or providence. If wealthy people are too drunk, lazy and apathetic to notice, their money machine will crumble. We all can try to do our part, but I will say this, wealthy people, the ball is truly in your court. With great wealth comes great responsibility. If your answer is to become puppeteers and turn us into puppets, then you aren't worthy of your blessings or the power and responsibility of having it. Don't forget, the worms are waiting for us all, no matter whether we are rich or poor.
This will not be a bloodless revolution.
We will bring back the guillotine.
And then we will destroy and dispose of your money entirely.
'Interesting !! We read news in the media that doom and gloom is coming and we just accept it, doom and gloom doesn’t always have to be coming, I’ve read numerous success stories of people that are pulling off tremendous gains of up to $250K within weeks in this crazy market and I just want to learn how to achieve such figures.
is this why the border is wide open? what the government has given them from the start winds up to all and plus be paid back to the government. good old TAXES! does this sound a bit correct?
fascinating analysis, do you think China has overextended with the building of their "empty cities"?
Nixon was a failure
A couple of things that made me scratch my head as a Canadian riding the same wave as the United States since 1945.
I noticed changes and the upcoming turmoil 10 years ago with sky rocketing property values. But what had me scratching my head was blaming the last round of printing on Covid. I find Covid to be the perfect way to hide many sins of the past in a mountain of debt, at this time, I'd bet their isn't an accountant out there that can figure out where all the money has gone. Mr. Dalio did also said that the Democrats (Liberal Party in Canada) are trying to re-distribute wealth to everyone and Republicans are looking to protect corporations! From where I'm sitting, he looks to have things backwards, we have congressmen and women making money had over fist in the stock market, isn't that a conflict of interest that was punished a few years ago? Here in Canada, their are billion unaccounted for, it is almost as if they know whats coming and they are taking as much as they can. I believe that I'm in the 10% side, only through hard work and it's my hope that our dollars go to zero and we're all on the same playing field!
A civil war is coming, no if's and's or but's. From start to finish, the political class is to blame for our problems.
Dutch east India company, British east India company, Swedish, Portuguese and French east India company. All these establishments responsible for the supposed enrichment of European nation have one word in common.
Thanks for making this "gold" ✨️ free
Everything about this video is simply amazing, the simplification of knowledge to layman terms, the storytelling, the graphics that accompany the narration to keep it interesting, a true masterpiece !
The US vitals are not good. Time to prepare folks for the war I guess as Ray points out.
Kingdoms were changed by myriad of causes: the American economy is destroyed by greedy capitalists more than anything else. Take Detroit for example: industrialists wanted to maximize profits for investors at expense of workers: workers resisted: the city declined: everywhere the towns and cities declined: there were industrialists and investors triggering it. China, where industrialisation was exported to: has a tight grip on labor and the industrialists.